Sep 27 2008
The Effect of the US Economic Crisis on the Panamanian Economy
By Aet Elisa Tejera C. for La Critica - The Panamanian banking sector will not be affected by the economic crisis in the United States, but the local economy will be, economist Nicolás Ardito Barletta said yesterday. He said that the deposits as well as local and international loans are safe in Panama because the banking sector handles policies differently from those of the United States. Just between January and July of 2008 in comparison to the same period in 2007, the total assets of the national banking system grew 22.7% according to data from the Nation's Comptroller. Nevertheless, Ardito Barletta thinks that in the coming months growth in credits will be somewhat contracted. According to the ex President and former Vice President of the World Bank, in the next 12 months the economy will be affected because exports to the United States will fall. Currently more than 50% of Panamanian goods are exported to the United States. Other areas that will be somewhat affected, he added, will be real estate, tourism, the Colon Free Trade Zone, the Panama Canal, among others. The economist added that the policies of this world-wide economic power have well good, but he is convinced that the lack of regulation in the system to grant mortgages has been a "cancer" that has taken them to the present crisis. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 2008 The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), accumulated from January through July 2008, presents an increase of 9,2%, thanks to solid growth in construction, real estate business, hotels, restaurants, transportation, storage, and communications.
Editor's Comment: Panama is in a better position to take a hit to the US economy than it ever has been in the past. In the early part of this decade a slowdown in the US economy caused an economic "crisis" in Panama from 2000 to 2004. No one was doing much of anything, there was no construction activity to speak of, and the country was at a relative economic standstill. From 2004 through 2008 economic growth in Panama has been astounding and for the first time in its history Panama has somewhat divorced its economy from the United States. But, The US is still the largest user of the Panama Canal, for example and any slowdown will most certainly be felt here in some sectors. But, all indications are that growth will continue in many sectors of the Panamanian economy, which will for the most part offset those areas hit hard by contractions in the US.
Economía podría verse afectada
La economía de los Estados Unidos representa el 25% de la producción mundial y si esta continúa debilitándose afectará los mercados.
Aet Elisa Tejera C. | Crítica en Línea
Estados Unidos es el principal usuario del Canal de Panamá.
El sector bancario panameño no se verá afectado con la crisis en Estados Unidos, pero sí la economía local, advirtió ayer el economista Nicolás Ardito Barletta.
Aclaró que los depósitos y préstamos nacionales e internacionales están seguros en Panamá, porque el sector bancario local maneja políticas diferentes a las del país norteño.
Sólo entre enero y julio de este año, comparado con igual periodo del año pasado, los activos totales del sistema bancario nacional subieron un 22.7 %, según datos de la Contraloría.
Sin embargo, Ardito Barletta considera que en los meses venideros el crecimiento en los créditos se verá un tanto contraído.
A juicio del ex mandatario y ex vicepresidente del Banco Mundial, en los próximos 12 meses, la economía, se verá afectada porque las exportaciones hacia Estados Unidos disminuirán. Actualmente el país norteño representa el mercado de más del 50% de las exportaciones panameñas.
Otras áreas que se verán un tanto afectadas, agregó, serán las del sector inmobiliario, turismo, la Zona Libre de Colón, el Canal, entre otros.
El economista agregó que las políticas de esta potencia mundial han estado bien, pero está convencido de que la falta de regulación en el sistema de otorgar hipotecas ha sido el "cáncer" que los ha llevado a la crisis actual.
ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA 2008
Índice Mensual de Actividad Económica (IMAE), acumulado de enero a julio, presenta un incremento de 9.2%, debido a que los negocios en construcción, servicios inmobiliarios, hoteles y restaurantes, así como el transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones, mostraron un mayor crecimiento.
